Destined For Slow Growth? 5/9/16

The Markets

Reading economic portents can be tricky

For example, do signs that economic growth is slowing - like last week's employment report, which was anemic relative to consensus forecasts, and first quarter's gross domestic product (GDP) growth - mean the economy is headed for trouble? Or, does it mean the economy is going to continue to grow slowly? 

It all depends on whom you ask. 

Some see current lackluster economic data as a harbinger of trouble. Last week, Barron's cited an expert who was concerned about employment data. "...It could be a sign of trouble...Specifically, falling profit margins will put pressure to trim costs and head counts later this year and into 2017, which would slow consumer-spending growth."

Others believe the United States is destined to experience a persistent period of slow growth. In 2013, Barron's suggested the enviable pace of growth in the United States since World War II was likely to decline, along with the size of its working-age population and gains in worker productivity. The new era:

"...could have broad repercussions that will affect not only the pugilists in Washington but businesses and investors. Weaker growth will make it harder for companies to improve earnings, fatten dividends, or garner better stock returns. It also threatens to fan social inequality and class tensions and limit the ability of government to fund various entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security. Tax revenues also are likely to fall short of projected levels."

Of course, a lot depends on how you gauge growth. A 2009 discussion in a Harvard Business School blog asked whether slower growth, as measured by current indicators, was meaningful since, as this commentary mentioned last week, gross domestic product (GDP) is a flawed indicator. "Further, in an age of concern about the environment, questions are raised about whether certain forms of growth - let alone incorrect measures - serve a very good purpose."

Investors expressed their opinions last week. They weren't thrilled by mixed economic data or the possibility of slower growth. Reuters suggested markets' downward shift indicated a reduced appetite for risk.

It probably won't surprise you to learn Russia was on top.

In countries around the world, crony capitalism has thrived during the past two decades. The net worth of wealthy business folk, who worked closely with their governments, was almost $2 trillion in 2014, an increase of about 385 percent from 2004. That is about one-third of the total wealth of billionaires around the world.

The National Review defined crony capitalism as "...an insidious system in which businesses' success is based on a close relationship with government and, specifically, with the people in power who dispense favors, subsidies, bailouts, and other forms of special treatment."

The Economist offered some specific examples. "As commodity and property prices soared, so did the value of permits to dig mines in China or build offices in São Paulo. Telecoms spectrum doled out by Indian officials created instant billionaires. Implicit state guarantees let casino banking thrive on Wall Street and beyond."

In an effort to measure the influence of crony capitalism on wealth, The Economist developed an index. The publication took Forbes' annual lists of the world's billionaires, designated each billionaire as crony or not-crony (as determined by the industry in which he or she had accumulated wealth), sorted them by country, and then calculated wealth as a percent of their country's gross domestic product (GDP).

Russia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Ukraine topped the 22-country index in 2016. Germany, Poland, South Korea, Japan, and France were at the bottom. The United States was 15th on the list. U.S. billionaires' wealth is equivalent to about 13 percent of GDP, but wealth earned through crony capitalism accounts for just 2 percent of that amount.

Weekly Focus - Think About It

"The price of success is hard work, dedication to the job at hand, and the determination that whether we win or lose, we have applied the best of ourselves to the task at hand."

--Vince Lombardi, Past Coach of the Green Bay Packers

WMC - China's Downward Currency

Weekly Market Commentary

 

January 12, 2016

The Markets

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) started the New Year with a downward currency adjustment and fireworks followed. 

Last week, three distinct issues affected China's stock market. First, the PBOC's devaluation of the yuan (a.k.a. the renminbi), along with the knowledge the central bank had been spending heavily to prop up its currency in recent months, led many analysts and investors to the conclusion China's economy might not be as robust as official reports indicated, according to the Financial Times.

Not everyone was surprised by this revelation. During the fourth quarter of 2015, The Conference Board's working paper entitled Global Growth Projections for The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2016 reported:

"China's economy grew much slower than the official estimates suggest in the recent years. During the last five years, our estimates suggest an average growth of 4.3 percent, which is substantially lower than the official estimate of 7.8 percent. In 2015, we project China to see an average growth of 3.7 percent, which is indeed lower than the official target of 7 percent."

Second, state-run media made it clear the Chinese government would not step in to spur growth. Allowing market forces to play out is a requirement of the reforms international investors have been demanding of China, according to Barron's. The publication suggested Chinese President Xi Jinping is the victim of a Catch-22. The Chinese government took steps toward reform and international investors responded by selling shares in a panic:

"Weaning China off excessive credit, investment and import-led growth in favor of services means slower growth. Markedly slower, in fact, than the 6.5 percent Beijing is gunning for this year. But Monday's 7 percent stock rout shows international investors want it both ways. The rapid growth, innovation, and disruptive forces that capitalism produces? Yes. The downturns and volatility that come with it? Not so much."

The third factor was China's new and very strict stock market circuit breakers, which were introduced on January 4. The circuit breakers were intended to calm overheated markets, but they sparked panicked selling instead. When the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index falls 5 percent, Chinese stock trading stops for 15 minutes. When the index is down 7 percent, trading stops for the day. A similar mechanism is employed in U.S. markets, which are far less volatile. However, trading is not delayed until the Standard & Poor's 500 index has fallen by 7 percent, and it does not stop until the index is down by 20 percent. Last week, China's stock markets closed twice as investors, who were worried the circuit breakers might kick in, rushed to sell shares.

China suspended its circuit breakers on Thursday, and the PBOC set the value of the yuan at a higher level. That helped China's stock markets, and others around the world, settle. China's markets gained ground on Friday, although U.S. markets finished the week lower. Markets may continue to be jittery next week as "a tsunami of negative psychology driven by China" works its way through the system, reported Reuters.

FOURTH QUARTER, A LOOK BACK...

The Federal Reserve pulled the trigger.

At the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed finally acted, tightening monetary policy by raising the funds rate from 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent. It's important to remember the Fed doesn't actually set interest rates. It takes actions designed to influence financial behaviors. The Fed has given rates a push, it remains to be seen whether its efforts will bear fruit.

The European Central Bank (ECB) acted, too.

Although, its monetary policy moved in a different direction, offering additional stimulus measures to support European economies. Investors were enthusiastic when the ECB announced its intentions; however, markets were underwhelmed when the economic measures delivered were less stimulative than many had expected.

China's currency gained status.

The International Monetary Fund decided to add the Chinese yuan (a.k.a. the renminbi) to its Special Drawing Rights basket, effective October 1, 2016. After the renminbi is added, the U.S. dollar will comprise 42 percent of the basket, the euro will be 31 percent, the renminbi will be 11 percent, the Japanese yen will be 8 percent, and the British pound will also be 8 percent.

Congress tweaked Social Security.

The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 (BBA) averted a U.S. default and deferred further discussion of U.S. debt and spending levels until after 2016's presidential and congressional elections. It also did away with two popular social security claiming strategies. The restricted application strategy was discontinued at the end of 2015, and file and suspend strategies will be unavailable after May 1, 2016.

Medicare premiums go up, but not for everyone.

The BBA also limited increases in Medicare premiums. About 14 percent of Medicare beneficiaries will pay higher premiums in 2016. The new premium will be $121.80, up from $104.90 in 2015. Original proposals suggested the premium amount increase to $159.30.

Weekly Focus - Think About It 

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

--Lao Tzu, Chinese philosopher

WMC- Gifts From Congress

   

January 5, 2016

The Markets

Investing in U.S. stock markets during 2015 was a bit like riding a mechanical bull. Markets jolted up and down but, once the year ended, investors were almost where they had started. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) entered 2015 at about 2,058. It rose as high as 2,130 during May and fell to about 1,867 in August. As the year ended, the index was almost at 2,044. It would have finished in negative territory if it weren't for dividends. With dividends included, the S&P 500 was up 1.4 percent for the year, according to Barron's. Without dividends, it was down 0.7 percent. Market performance left plenty of room for speculation about what the future may hold. Barron's explained: "The problem isn't just that the S&P 500 finished flat but that it finished trendless...So, as 2016 begins, it's very easy to impose whatever narratives we want on the market. For the bears, the fact that the market hasn't been able to hit a new high, and that small caps have underperformed large, is a sign that the market is peaking...Still, there's enough good news to keep the bulls heartened...The price of oil, which pulled down S&P 500 earnings in 2015, might be stabilizing...And, remember, Congress just passed a spending bill that could pick up the stimulus baton from the Federal Reserve." Regardless of whether you lean toward bullishness or bearishness, the performance of the S&P 500 during 2015 reinforced the value of dividends. When it comes to investing in stocks, there are basically two ways to make money. First, the value of a company can increase and investors can earn capital gains. Second, investors may receive dividends, which are a portion of a company's earnings its board of directors chooses to distribute to shareholders. During the past several years, as interest rates have remained persistently low, dividends have become important to many investors as a source of income. They also are a critical component of total return. From 1926 through 2014, dividends accounted for more than 40 percent of the total returns generated by the S&P 500. You may have received a gift from congress Our elected leaders did some re-gifting during 2015. They restored tax cuts that had been allowed to expire and made them retroactive for 2015. Kiplinger's reported, "In an important twist to the habitual year-end gamesmanship, however, this time Congress actually made many of [the tax cuts] permanent and even improved a few." The tax law changes help people who:  Commute to work: During 2016, employees who drive can pay for parking with up to $255 of pre-tax salary, and people who rely on mass transit to get to work can spend the same amount of pre-tax salary on transportation. (Slide 3) Have children in college: The American Opportunity College Credit, a $2,500 tax credit for families with qualifying college students, was made permanent, although the credit phases out at higher income levels. (Slide 4) Live in states with no or low income tax: The choice about whether to deduct state income tax or state sales tax paid during the year on a federal tax return was renewed. It expired at the end of 2014, and now applies retroactively to 2015. (Slide 6) Want to make charitable contributions using required minimum distributions (RMDs): Once again, IRA owners who are age 70½ or older can donate up to $100,000 of their traditional IRAs directly to charity, tax-free, using all or part of their RMDs. It's now a permanent tax break. (Slide 7) Own businesses: The $500,000 "expensing" cap was restored for 2015, and will be permanent going forward. Bonus depreciation also was extended. (Slide 12)  These are just a few of the tax cuts Congress passed. Give us a call to discuss how these tax changes, and others, may benefit you. Weekly Focus - Think About It "I live my life in widening circles that reach out across the world." --Rainer Maria Rilke, Austrian poet

WMC- Happy New Year!

December 28, 2015 Follow Us On Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter! | Kalispell MT | (406) 756-3787 |

CWMP's New Year's Resolution To Our Clients

No matter what specific resolutions you make for 2016, we're here to ensure you have the information and support you need to make sound financial decisions. Happy New Year from the CWMP team!

The Markets

It was a short week, but it wasn't quiet. Oil prices moved higher, according to The Wall Street Journal, after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported crude-oil inventories fell unexpectedly last year. Analysts had predicted oil supplies would rise. One expert cited by The Wall Street Journal suggested the stockpile decline and subsequent oil price rally owed much to Gulf Coast refiners reducing inventories "to mitigate state ad valorem taxes on year-end crude stocks." If that's the case, the oil price increase may not be sustained. Regardless, improving oil prices gave U.S. stock markets a boost. In particular, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) benefitted from improving performance in the energy sector: "Of 80 U.S. listed oil and gas producers, all but one - a bankrupt company - rose on the day, with nearly half of the companies up more than 10 percent. Energy shares were the biggest gainers Wednesday in the S&P 500, up 3.8 percent and helped the S&P 500 on the whole gain 1.2 percent in late-afternoon trading." Barron's reported energy stocks had gained 5 percent for the week, but were still off by about 22 percent for the year. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its World Oil Outlook last week. BBC reported OPEC anticipates oil prices will begin to rise in 2016, although its producers' share of the market is expected to shrink by 2020 as rival oil-producers proved to be more resilient in the face of low oil prices than had been expected. LOOKING BACK... Each week 'The Economist Explains' blog expounds on subjects ranging from current events to economics, from philosophical or scientific issues to everyday oddities. Let's take a quick look at a few of its headlines during 2015:  1. Why the Swiss unpegged the Swiss franc (January 18, 2015). Remember when the Swiss National Bank removed its currency peg last January? The Swiss franc realized double-digit gains in value and the Swiss stock market dropped. 2. Everything you want to know about falling oil prices (March 18, 2015). "The main reason for falling prices is increased supply from America thanks to its fracking boom, which has reduced its demand for oil imports. Other countries, notably Saudi Arabia, have been loth to curb supply lest they lose their share of the global oil market." 3. Why so many Dutch people work part time (May 11, 2015). More than one-half of the working population in Netherlands is employed part-time - a higher percentage than anywhere else in the world. "This is partly a relic of prevailing Christian attitudes which said that mothers should be home for tea time and partly down to the wide availability of well-paid "first tier" part-time jobs." 4. What Greece must do to receive a new bail-out (July 14, 2015). After challenging negotiations, Greece and its European creditors cut a deal, allowing the country to remain in the euro area. 5. China's botched stock market rescue (July 30, 2015). Chinese stocks lost nearly a third of their value last summer. China's authorities "resorted to heavy-handed measures to prop up swooning share prices, from pressuring banks to buy stocks to blocking big investors from selling theirs." 6. Why is the Nobel prize in chemistry given for things that are not chemistry (October 7, 2015)? Apparently, five of the last 10 Nobel chemistry prizes have been awarded for pursuits that might better be described as biology. A possible explanation is "the diversity of chemistry prizes reflects the fact that chemistry is found everywhere..." 7. How the Fed will raise interest rates (December 14, 2015). Just as the Fed employed unconventional monetary tools to stimulate the economy, it is using new policy tools to try to increase the Fed funds rate. We hope 2015 has been a memorable and rewarding year for you, and we look forward to working with you in the New Year. Weekly Focus - Think About It "It is not enough to have a good mind; the main thing is to use it well." --Rene Descartes, French philosopher, mathematician, and scientist

New Year's Resolutions

With 2016 just around the corner, it's time to start thinking about your News Year's resolutions. To help you come up with ideas, here are some not so successful resolutions and statistics. Top 5 New Year's Resolutions 1. Lose Weight 2. Get Organized 3. Spend Less, Save More 4. Enjoy Life to the Fullest 5. Stay Fit and Healthy How Long Do People Stick With Their Resolutions? Through the First Week: Past Two Weeks Past One Month Past Six Months 75% 71% 64% 46% No matter what your New Year's resolution is, we wish you the happiest of  New Year's and good fortune!

WMC - It's Not a Surprise!

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Weekly Market Commentary

 

December 14, 2015

The Markets

It's not like it's a surprise! Last week, investors didn't appear to be thrilled with the possibility the Federal Reserve might raise rates this week. They also weren't too impressed by another drop in oil prices. There was red ink everywhere as markets from Australia to Hong Kong, across the Eurozone, and throughout the Americas moved lower last week. Bloomberg reported there was a 74 percent probability of a Fed rate hike at the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Wall Street Journal's survey of business and academic economists put the chance at 97 percent. More than 80 percent of those surveyed said the Fed would lose credibility if it doesn't act in December. It's important to remember the Fed doesn't actually set interest rates. It takes actions designed to influence financial behaviors. Even if the Fed does push to increase interest rates, it remains to be seen whether its efforts will bear fruit. The Financial Times wrote: "...As "lift-off" has drawn closer some analysts have begun to highlight just how experimental this interest rate rise will be. The Fed's bloated balance sheet - swelled by its quantitative easing program - prevents it from using its traditional interest rate tools, so it has unveiled and has been testing new ones. The main new levers are known as the "interest on overnight reserves" and the "overnight reverse repo program," and central bank officials are confident that they will be able to lift the Fed funds rate, which is the main target. But some analysts caution that it could be a choppy take-off." If the Fed acts and interest rates don't respond, there may be further volatility. The Financial Times reported markets almost certainly have priced in a rate hike at this point. We'll find out next week. NEXT YEAR, CHINA'S RENMINBI (A.K.A. YUAN) WILL JOIN THE U.S. DOLLAR, euro, yen, and pound. When it is added to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket - a supplementary foreign exchange reserve asset that is defined and maintained by the IMF. It will become the third weightiest currency in the basket. After the renminbi is added, the U.S. dollar will comprise 42 percent of the basket (unchanged from 2010). The euro will be 31 percent (down from 37 percent in 2010). The renminbi will be 11 percent. The Japanese yen will be 8 percent (down from 9 percent in 2010). The British pound will be 8 percent (down from 11 percent). Managing Director of the IMF Christine Lagarde said: "The Executive Board's decision to include the RMB in the SDR basket is an important milestone in the integration of the Chinese economy into the global financial system. It is also a recognition of the progress that the Chinese authorities have made in the past years in reforming China's monetary and financial systems. The continuation and deepening of these efforts will bring about a more robust international monetary and financial system, which in turn will support the growth and stability of China and the global economy." So, is the renminbi likely to give the U.S. dollar a run for its money? Not any time soon, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Over the next 50 years, they gave China about a 34 percent chance of challenging the dollar. One said, "To match the dollar's appeal, China will need markets as deep as those in the U.S. and to produce economic indicators that are trustworthy." Weekly Focus - Think About It "Power is of two kinds. One is obtained by the fear of punishment and the other by acts of love. Power based on love is a thousand times more effective and permanent then the one derived from fear of punishment." --Mahatma Gandhi, Former leader of the Indian independence movement

How Not To Be A Grinch

How Not To Be A Grinch

We all know who The Grinch is-that nasty, green-colored creature of Dr. Seuss' imagination. He stole Christmas, nearly ruined everything, and then repented at the eleventh hour. Well, you don't have to literally steal gifts out from beneath the tree to ruin the holidays for yourself and your family-all it takes is the wrong attitude.  If you're feeling your inner Grinch start to crawl out of his cave, try a few of these techniques that should have you back to your regular, cheerful self in no time. Make Lists: Make a list of recipes you want to make over the holiday season. Make a list of gifts you need to buy. Make a list of crafts you'd like to make. You get the idea! Use a binder, websites like Pinterest, or apps like Evernote, to keep it all easily accessible. Simplify: Overwhelmed by hosting a holiday meal? Make it a potluck. Stressed at the thought of running all over town to purchase gifts? Buy them online. Keep it simple! Learn to Say No: Don't feel as if you have to attend everything you're invited to. And be sure to schedule days when you're doing absolutely nothing except sitting bundled up on the couch with a good book and a cup of hot cocoa. Take a Break: If you're introverted and are feeling emotionally exhausted because you have family around 24/7-make sure you take frequent breaks to get quiet, alone time. Balancing time with others and time by yourself is always important. Get the Kids Involved:  Kids can do everything from decorating cookies to trimming the tree-as long as you're not a perfectionist who insists on having it exactly your way, which brings us to the next point.

WMC- Flat Is The New Up

Weekly Market Commentary

 

December 7, 2015

The Markets

Anyone looking at U.S. stock market performance last week might assume it was a pretty quiet week. They would be wrong. It was a very bouncy week. U.S. stock markets moved lower on Monday, rebounded on Tuesday, and then appeared to suffer a one-two punch mid-week that knocked indices lower. On Wednesday, the benchmark U.S. oil price sank below $40 a barrel as supply continued to exceed demand, according to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ). Analysts had expected stockpiles of crude oil, gasoline, and other fuels to decline. Instead, stores increased to more than 1.3 billion barrels. The glut of fuel drove energy stock values down and energy stocks led the broader market lower, according to WSJ. Performance did not improve on Thursday. In part, this was because the European Central Bank (ECB) underwhelmed markets when it delivered economic measures that were less stimulative than many had expected. The Financial Times reported the ECB reduced rates and pledged to extend quantitative easing for six additional months, but it did not increase the amount of its bond purchases, which disappointed investors. Stock markets in Europe and the United States lost value on the news. On Friday, a strong jobs report restored investors' enthusiasm and markets regained losses suffered earlier in the week, according to ABC News. The Department of Labor announced 211,000 jobs were added in November, which was more than analysts had expected. Strong employment numbers made the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike seem more certain and investors welcomed certainty. The ECB jumped into the good-news pool on Friday, too, announcing it would expand stimulus measures, if necessary. The Standard & Poor's 500, Dow Jones Industrial, and NASDAQ indices were all up for the week. It's That Time Of The Year. No, not the holidays. It's the time when investors begin to consider pundits' forecasts for the coming year. Here are a few of those forecasts: "Flat is the new up," was the catch phrase for Goldman Sachs' analysts last August, and their outlook doesn't appear to have changed for the United States. In Outlook 2016, they predicted U.S. stocks will have limited upside next year and expressed concern that positive economic news may bring additional Fed tightening. Goldman expects global growth to stabilize during 2016 as emerging markets rebound, and Europe and Japan may experience improvement. Jeremy Grantham of GMO, who is known for gloomy outlooks, is not concerned about the Federal Reserve raising rates, according to Financial Times (FT). FT quoted Grantham as saying, "We might have a wobbly few weeks...but I'm sure the Fed will stroke us like you wouldn't believe and the markets will settle down, and most probably go to a new high." Grantham expects the high to be followed by a low. He has been predicting global markets will experience a major decline in 2016 for a couple years, and he anticipates the downturn could be accompanied by global bankruptcies. PWC's Trendsetter Barometer offered a business outlook after surveying corporate executives. After the third quarter of 2015, it found, "U.S. economic fundamentals remain strong, but markets and executives like predictability, and that's not what we've been getting lately... Trendsetter growth forecasts are down, so are plans for [capital expenditure] spending, hiring, and more. It doesn't help that we've entered a contentious 2016 election season..." The Economist had this advice for investors who are reviewing economic forecasts, "Economic forecasting is an art, not a science. Of course, we have to make some guess. The average citizen would be well advised, however, to treat all forecasts with a bucket (not just a pinch) of salt." Weekly Focus - Think About It "Weather forecast for tonight: dark." --George Carlin, American comedian