Keep Your Eyes On The Horizon 11/19/18

The Markets

Keep your eyes on the horizon.

Motion sickness happens when your body receives conflicting signals from your eyes, ears, and other body parts. One way to manage the anxiety and queasiness that accompany the condition is by keeping your eyes on the horizon.

The motion of the stock markets has been causing some investors to experience similar symptoms. Surprisingly, the remedy is the same: Keep your eyes on the horizon – your financial planning horizon.  

A planning horizon is the length of time over which an investor would like to achieve his or her financial goals. For instance, perhaps you want to pay off student loans by age 30, fund a child’s college tuition when they reach age 18, or retire at age 60.

When stock markets are volatile, an investor may receive conflicting signals from various sources, which may induce anxiety and queasiness. When you start to worry about the effects of market volatility on your portfolio, remember stock markets have trended higher, historically, even after significant downturns.

For instance, in 2008, during the financial crisis, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 33 percent. It finished the year at 8,776. The drop sparked tremendous anxiety among investors who wondered whether their portfolios would ever recover.

Last week, the Dow closed at 25,413.

While stock markets have trended higher historically, there is no guarantee they always will. That’s why asset allocation and diversification are so important. A carefully selected mix of assets and investments can reduce the impact of any single asset class or investment on a portfolio’s performance. Keep in mind, of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Last week, stock markets finished lower. MarketWatch reported U.S. stocks moved higher on Friday after President Trump indicated he might not pursue tariffs against China.

What Is An Apology Worth? 

John List, an economist at the University of Chicago and Chief Economist for a ride-sharing app, needed to go from his house to the hotel where he was a keynote speaker. So, of course, he called his ride-sharing company. The experience was less than stellar, as he explained to Steven Dubner of Freakonomics Radio:

“So I get in the back of the car and it says I’m going to be there in 27 minutes. So I go into my own land of working on my slides, because of course I’m doing things at the last minute. I lose track of time. I look back up about 25 minutes later, and I’m back in front of my house…And I said, ‘Oh my god, what happened?’ The driver said, ‘I got really confused, and the GPS switched, and we turned around and I thought that you changed the destination, so I went back.’ So I told her immediately, ‘Turn around, go back.’ I missed part of my panel.”

List also missed an apology, which neither the driver nor the company offered.

He decided to investigate how much mistakes, like the one he experienced, cost the company and whether an apology would reduce the cost. As it turned out, the cost of 5 percent of trips that resulted in customers being 10 or 15 minutes late was 5 to 10 percent in lost revenue.

List enlisted the help of researchers Benjamin Ho of Vassar College, Basil Halperin of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Ian Muir of the ride-sharing company, and conducted a field experiment on clients of the ride-sharing company. They discovered apologies are not universally successful at reducing the costs associated with a bad experience. The most successful apologies had a monetary value. In their case, a $5 coupon produced a 2 percent increase in net spending.

The team discovered another important fact. Apologies lose value and can inflict reputational damage when a company has to apologize multiple times.

No surprise there.

Weekly Focus – Think About It 

“When dealing with people, remember you are not dealing with creatures of logic, but creatures of emotion.”

--Dale Carnegie, American writer and lecturer

Rise In Optimism 11/12/18

The Markets

How are you feeling about financial markets?

Some votes are still being counted but investors appear to be happy with the outcome of mid-term elections. Major U.S. stock indices in the United States moved higher last week, and the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey reported:

“Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices is above average for just the second time in nine weeks…Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 3.4 percentage points to 41.3 percent. This is a five-week high. The historical average is 38.5 percent.”

Before you get too excited about the rise in optimism, you should know pessimism also remains at historically high levels. According to AAII:

“Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 3.3 percentage points to 31.2 percent. The drop was not steep enough to prevent pessimism from remaining above its historical average of 30.5 percent for the eighth time in nine weeks.”

So, from a historic perspective, investors are both more bullish and more bearish than average. If Sir John Templeton was correct, the mixed emotions of investors could be good news for stock markets. Templeton reportedly said, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”

While changes in sentiment are interesting market measurements, they shouldn’t be the only factor that influences investment decision-making. The most important gauge of an individual’s financial success is his or her progress toward achieving personal life goals – and goals change over time. 

Is A Zeal of zebras a better investment than a blessing of unicorns? 

Collective nouns are the names we use to describe collections or significant numbers of people, animals, and other things. The Oxford English Dictionary offered a few examples:

• A gaggle of geese

• A crash of rhinoceros

• A glaring of cats

• A stack of librarians

• A groove of DJs

In recent years, some investors have shown great interest in blessings of unicorns. ‘Unicorns’ are private, start-up companies that have grown at an accelerated pace and are valued at $1 billion.

In early 2018, estimates suggested there were approximately 135 unicorns in the United States. Will Gornall and Ilya A. Strebulaev took a closer look and found some unicorns were just gussied-up horses, though, according to research published in the Journal of Financial Economics.

The pair developed a financial model for valuing unicorn companies and reported, “After adjusting for these valuation-inflating terms, almost one-half (65 out of 135) of unicorns lose their unicorn status.”

Clearly, unicorn companies must be thoroughly researched. There is another opportunity Yifat Oron suggested deserves more attention from investors: zebra companies. Oron’s article in Entrepreneur explained:

“Zebra companies are characterized by doing real business, not aiming to disrupt current markets, achieving profitability and demonstrating it for a while, and helping to solve a societal problem…zebra companies…are for-profit and for a cause. We think of these businesses as having a ‘double bottom line’ – they're focused on alleviating social, environmental, or medical challenges while also tending to their own profitability.”

Including both types of companies in a portfolio seems like a reasonable approach. 

If you were to choose a collective noun to describe investors, what would it be? An exuberance? A balance? An influence?

Weekly Focus – Think About It 

“In his learnings under his brother Mahmoud, he had discovered that long human words rarely changed their meanings, but short words were slippery, changing without a pattern…Short human words were like trying to lift water with a knife.”

--Robert Heinlein, American science fiction writer

Growth May Be Coming To A Halt 10/22/18

The Markets

The world remains full of opportunities and challenges.

Although we’ve seen global markets moving in tandem in recent years, Sara Potter of FactSet pointed out, “…we’re starting to see the end of the synchronized global growth that has prevailed over the last two years. While the U.S. economy remains strong, growth in Europe and Japan is moderating, and emerging markets are under increasing economic and financial market pressure.”

Strong economic growth and robust earnings helped U.S. stocks significantly outperform other regions of the world during the third quarter of 2018. In addition, the resolution of some trade tensions, namely the signing of a United States-Korea trade deal and the renegotiation of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), helped soothe investor concerns, reported Jeffrey Kleintop of Schwab.

The trade relationship between the United States and China, however, remains an itchy rash marring the outlook for economic growth in both countries. The Economist Intelligence Unit reported:

“Since the start of 2018 trade policy has become the biggest risk to The Economist Intelligence Unit's central forecast for global economic growth. We now expect this risk to materialize in the form of a bilateral trade war between the United States and China, with negative consequences for global growth…The trade war comes at a challenging time for the Chinese economy…The trade war will also affect the U.S. economy…the escalating trade dispute with China will start to weigh on growth later in 2018 and into 2019 – we now expect growth to slow in 2019 to 2.2 percent (2.5 percent previously). The U.S. manufacturing and agricultural sectors, in particular, will be hit by the trade dispute, and rising interest rates will cause private consumption to slow.”

China’s economic growth slowed during the third quarter. The nation experienced its slowest growth since 2009, reported Reuters.

Chinese stock markets generally lost value. However, some Chinese indices performed better than others, depending on the type of stocks included in the index. For example, the MSCI China Index, which measures large- and mid-cap stocks of various share types that trade on the mainland and in Hong Kong, was down 8.45 percent during the quarter.

In contrast, the MSCI Red Chip Index, which is comprised of stocks that are incorporated outside of China, trade on the Hong Kong exchange, and are usually controlled by the state or a province or municipality, was up 3.25 percent for the quarter and flat year-to-date.

Emerging markets were weak performers overall during the third quarter, but there were bright spots. Schroders explained, “Turkey was the weakest index market amid a sharp sell-off in the lira…By contrast, Thailand recorded a strong gain and was the best performing index, with energy stocks among the strongest names. Mexico outperformed as the market rallied following general elections and an agreement with the United States on NAFTA renegotiation. Taiwan, where semiconductor stocks supported performance, also outperformed. Despite ongoing risk of new U.S. sanctions, Russian equities also finished ahead of the benchmark, benefiting from crude oil price strength.”

Political strife continued to hamper the European Union and the United Kingdom during the third quarter. Overall company profits weren’t particularly impressive in the region and neither was economic growth, reported BlackRock.

As the third quarter came to a close, Barron’s conducted its Fall Big Money Poll. Vito Racanelli reported almost two-thirds of professional money managers from across the country said the U.S. stock market was fairly valued – and that was before the market slid lower early in the fourth quarter. While the money managers’ assessment doesn’t mean all U.S. stocks are fairly valued, there may be opportunities to invest in sound companies at attractive prices.

Trade tensions, inflation trends, and central bank monetary policy are likely to affect the performance of markets during the remainder of 2018 and into next year.

NEW TREND: PETS AND FINANCIAL PLANNING.  

Animals have played important roles in human lives for centuries. They provide companionship, comic relief, work assistance, transportation, reassurance, protection, and food. 

Today, emotional-support and service animals may be found in workplaces, beauty salons, cafes, theaters, airplanes, and many other places where our parents or grandparents would have been surprised to find them. Landlords charge pet rent, and some service animals qualify as a medical expense under Internal Revenue Service rules.

It is also becoming more and more common for pet owners to include pets in their financial planning goals. While you cannot leave your pet property, you can make arrangements to have your pet cared for after you are gone.

Last week, The Economist reported, “Two-thirds of all horse owners in America have made some provision in their wills for their pets, according to a survey by the American Pet Products Association. Over a third of American pet owners say they would pay for animal-related expenses by putting less into their retirement accounts. And, three-quarters of those buying a home said they would turn down an otherwise ideal property if it did not meet their animal’s needs.” In addition, pets can become beneficiaries of trusts.

Whether you think the idea of providing financial support for pets is silly or you wholeheartedly embrace it, the role of animals in the lives of many Americans is changing.

Weekly Focus – Think About It 

“Animals are such agreeable friends - they ask no questions; they pass no criticisms.”

--George Eliot (a.k.a. Mary Anne Evans), English Novelist

Investors Are Left Startled 10/15/18

The Markets

Like an unexpected gust of wind that blows the hat off your head or flips your umbrella inside out, last week’s stock market performance startled investors.

Looking back, it’s easy to identify some of the factors that may have contributed to investors’ unease and shaken confidence in the markets. Ben Levisohn of Barron’s offered a brief rundown that included:

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries rising to a seven-year high. As interest rates move higher, bonds become more attractive to investors who prefer to take less risk. They move money from stocks into bonds and that can push stock prices lower.

• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggesting the Fed funds target rate could move higher. Investors worry the Federal Reserve is too hawkish and will raise rates too high, too quickly, causing economic growth to stumble.

• A speech by Vice President Mike Pence indicating tensions with China may persist. Companies that export to China or manufacture goods in China are at risk if relations between China and the United States don’t improve. Poor relations could affect profits, share values, and economic growth.

• Earnings reports showing tariffs negatively affecting some companies’ profit margins. FactSet reported, “the term ‘tariff’ has been mentioned during the earnings calls of 12 S&P 500 companies to date, with six of these 12 companies citing a negative impact linked to tariffs.”

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowering its economic growth projections. Concern about the impact of trade tensions on companies around the world led the IMF to lower some of its economic growth estimates for 2018, especially in Asia and emerging markets.

Some analysts believe a desire to take profits also helped fuel the downturn, according to Barron’s Randall W. Forsyth.

Whatever combination of events was responsible, the result was markets losing value on Wednesday and Thursday of last week before regaining some lost ground on Friday. Forsyth wrote, “What turned the U.S. markets around Friday – when the Dow and the S&P 500 managed to pop more than 1 percent and the NASDAQ Composite bounced over 2 percent – wasn’t much clearer than what set off the slide. Market Semiotics’ Woody Dorsey says that his proprietary sentiment polling found a bullish reading of absolute zero on Thursday, a contrarian indication that “panic” would be short-lived.”

While sharp drops in share values are never comfortable, it’s important to consider the bigger picture. A contributor to Bloomberg Opinion wrote, “This decline follows a market that has tripled since 2009, had zero volatility in 2017…This was the 20th time since the bear market ended in 2009 that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had a one-day loss of 3 percent. The NASDAQ-100 Index had its eighth 4 percent down day (although it was the biggest one-day fall since August 2011).”

In other words, selloffs are normal and we have experienced them before.

So, what should you take away from last week? 

1. First, it was a reminder that stocks are volatile investments. They have the potential to deliver higher returns than other asset classes because they require investors to take higher levels of risk. 

2. Second, stock market volatility is one reason we allocate assets and build well-diversified portfolios. Holding different asset classes and diverse investments within a portfolio can help reduce the sting of unwelcome surprises like a sharp drop in the value of stocks.

3. Worries about what the future may hold are likely to ruffle investors and we may see additional bouts of market volatility. The current bull market has been running for a long time. Some analysts anticipate recession and a bear market are ahead. As Barron’s reported, neither appears to be here yet:

“Other leading indicators, including jobless claims and credit spreads, also held up. ‘I don’t see this all leading to recession,’ says Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. ‘And, without a recession, I don’t think we get a bear market.’”

No matter how intellectually rational these points seem, downturns tend to leave everyone feeling jittery and uncertain. So, take a moment. Think about your portfolio and how it was built to help you achieve your financial goals. Now, ask yourself: 

• Have my goals changed? 

• Has my risk tolerance changed? 

If the answer to either of these questions is, ‘Yes,’ call us. We’ll sit down, review your goals and risk tolerance, and make sure your portfolio is structured appropriately.

We’re hoping for calmer markets ahead, but we may be in for a bumpy ride. 

ON A LIGHTER NOTE…

It’s important to recognize when daily challenges affect our ability to cope and take steps to lower stress when they do. The Mayo Clinic recommends laughter, “Whether you're guffawing at a sitcom on TV or quietly giggling at a newspaper cartoon, laughing does you good. Laughter is a great form of stress relief, and that's no joke.”

In the hope of offsetting some of last week’s stress, here is humor from F In Exams: The Very Best Totally Wrong Test Answers by Richard Benson:

Question: What is a vibration? 

Answer: There are good vibrations and bad vibrations. Good vibrations were discovered in the 1960s.

Question: What happens when your body starts to age?

Answer: When you get old your organs work less effectively and you can become intercontinental.

Question: What is a fibula?

Answer: A little lie.

Question: Give three ways to reduce heat loss in your home.

Answer: 1) Thermal underwear; 2) Move to Hawaii; 3) Close the door.

Question: You are at a friend’s party. Six cupcakes are distributed among nine plates, and there is no more than one cake per plate. What is the probability of receiving a plate with a cake on it? 

Answer: None, if my sister is invited too.

Question: Explain the dispersal of various farming types in the Midwest.

Answer: The cows and pigs are distributed in different fields so they don’t eat each other.

Question: Name six animals that live specifically in the Arctic.

Answer: Two polar bears Three Four seals

Sometimes, laughter is truly the best medicine.

Weekly Focus – Think About It 

“In the business world, the rear-view mirror is always clearer than the windshield.”

--Warren Buffett, American businessman, speaker, and philanthropist

Unemployment Drops Tremendously... 10-8-18

The Markets

The stock market tends to be a leading economic indicator.

Last week offered some insight to economics and stock market behavior. The U.S. unemployment rate reached its lowest level since 1969 and wages moved higher, yet major U.S. stock indices lost value.

Why didn’t stock markets move higher? 

The answer is stock prices tend to be leading indicators. They reflect investors’ expectations for the future. Last week, investors may have been thinking like this:

When unemployment is low, companies cannot always hire enough workers…

To hire more workers, companies raise wages… 

Higher wages give workers more spendable income… 

More spendable income produces higher demand for goods and services… 

Higher demand for goods and services leads to higher prices… 

Higher prices (inflation) cause the Federal Reserve to increase the Fed funds rate… 

An increase in the Fed funds rate pushes interest rates higher…

Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive… 

Higher borrowing costs may slow business spending… 

Slower business spending may cause profits to fall… 

Falling profits may cause investors to sell shares… 

When investors sell shares, stock prices may drop. 

In general, “…while it usually takes at least 12 months for any increase or decrease in interest rates to be felt in a widespread economic way, the market's response to a change (or news of a potential change) is often more immediate,” explained Mary Hall on Investopedia.com.

At the end of last week, 10-year Treasuries yielded 3.2 percent. Daniel Kruger of The Wall Street Journal reported, “U.S. government bond yields rose to their highest level in years Friday as investors reconsidered the strength of the U.S. economy while selling off stocks that could be hurt by higher borrowing costs.”

One way to manage stock market volatility is to have a well-allocated and diversified portfolio.

WHAT DO YOU THINK? 

Athletes who grew up playing pick-up games of baseball, kickball, basketball, street hockey, and other sports with neighborhood kids may have had some advantages they didn’t recognize. 

A Brazilian research study, cited by Freakonomics Radio’s show Here’s Why You’re Not An Elite Athlete (Ep. 351), found children who played sports in unstructured environments showed more tactical creativity and tactical intelligence than children who played in structured environments.

In addition, playing multiple sports may be more beneficial than specializing in a single sport, at least when it comes to soccer.

A study by Manuel Hornig, Friedhelm Aust, and Arne Güllich reviewed the training of soccer players in Germany. Practice and play in the development of German top-level professional football players, which was published in the European Journal Of Sports Science, reported athletes who went on to play for the German national team played more pick-up sports as children, and played more types of sports in adolescence, than players who did not make the German team.

“The trick is not just to get lots of children playing, but also to let them develop creatively. In many countries they do so by teaching themselves…Such opportunities are disappearing in rich countries,” reported The Economist.

Maybe we should rethink our tactics.

Weekly Focus – Think About It 

“One man practicing sportsmanship is far better than 50 preaching it.”

--Knute Rockne, University of Notre Dame football coach

Federal Reserve Raises Rates 10/2/18

The Markets



It wasn’t headline news…

But, if newsprint was still popular, last week’s key economic news would have appeared below the fold. 

The Federal Reserve raised rates for the third time in 2018, as expected. In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee projects economic growth will continue for three more years, although its median numbers show growth slowing from 3.1 percent in 2018 to 1.8 percent in 2021. (Remember, forecasts, no matter how venerable the source, are best guesses and not bedrock.)

Investors weren’t enthusiastic about the Fed’s actions or its expectations, and the onset of United States-China tariffs didn’t lift their spirits. Ben Levisohn of Barron’s explained:

“The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 285.19 points, or 1.1 percent, to 26,458.31 on the week, while the S&P 500 fell 0.5 percent to 2913.98. Neither could be considered life threatening, and the S&P 500 still rose for a sixth consecutive month. So, while we need something to blame, we needn’t get too worried. Last Monday kicked off with the implementation of tariffs by the United States and China and continued with a Federal Reserve rate hike. Neither was a surprise, though the Fed might have caught a few napping when it removed the word ‘accommodative’ from its statement.”

What does it mean when the Federal Reserve removes the word ‘accommodative?’

The Fed pursues ‘accommodative’ or ‘easy’ monetary policy when it is encouraging economic growth. Accommodative policy may include lowering interest rates or, in unusual circumstances, quantitative easing.

By removing the word, the Fed may be signaling that policy will be ‘tightening’ in an effort to prevent the economy from overheating, reported Sam Fleming of Financial Times. There is debate about whether rates are at a neutral level; one that won’t cause the economy to run too hot or too cold.

Let’s hope for a Goldilocks economy. 

WHEN DO YOU BEHAVE THE MOST LIKE YOURSELF? 

Don’t worry. This isn’t about soul-searching and trying to find answers to existential questions like, ‘Who am I?’ or ‘What is my purpose?’ or ‘How should I live my life?’ 

Nope. This is about a science experiment!

Ian Krajbich of Ohio State University and Fadong Chen of Zhejiang University in China wanted to better understand how people made social decisions, according to a paper they published in Nature Communications. They began with the premise that “Social decisions typically involve conflicts between selfishness and pro-sociality.”

Then, they asked 200 students in the United States and Germany to play “mini-dictator games in which subjects make binary decisions about how to allocate money between themselves and another participant.”

Science Daily explained, “In some cases, participants had to decide within two seconds how they would share their money as opposed to other cases, when they were forced to wait at least 10 seconds before deciding. And, in additional scenarios, they were free to choose at their own pace, which was usually more than two seconds but less than 10.”

The upshot was people who were pro-social became more pro-social, and people with more selfish instincts became more selfish, under severe time constraints. Given more time, “pro-social subjects became marginally less pro-social under time delay…while selfish subjects became less selfish under time delay…though these effects are less pronounced.”

Maybe you behave most like you when you’re pressed for time.

Weekly Focus – Think About It 

“Selfishness is not living as one wishes to live, it is asking others to live as one wishes to live.”

--Oscar Wilde, Irish poet and playwright

Did You Hear The News? 9/24/18

The Markets

Did you hear the news? 

A tech company introduced a microwave you can turn on using Wi-Fi – as long as you have one of the company’s voice assistants at home, reported Kaitlyn Tiffany of Vox. Soon, the voice assistants will be built with neural networks that will formulate hunches about whether their owners might like to be reminded to lock the door or turn off a device.

Some people love the idea. Others don’t.

Internet-enabled appliances weren’t the only show in town last week. The strong performance of the U.S. economy earned a standing ovation from investors who pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Index and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to new highs. Many global stock markets moved higher, too. Ben Levisohn of Barron’s reported:

“One need only look overseas for a sign that investors are feeling better about the state of the world – or at least better enough to do some bargain-hunting. China’s Shanghai Composite rose 4.3 percent this past week, though it is still down 21 percent from its January high…”

The news in a FactSet Insight written by John Butters may dampen some investors’ enthusiasm.

With the third quarter earnings season ahead, Butters reported 98 of the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index have issued guidance. The majority (76 percent) issued negative guidance, meaning they anticipate earnings will be lower than analysts’ mean earnings per share estimates.

It’s important to remember that, historically, the U.S. economy has moved in cycles. We may be in the latter stages of this expansion. The next stage is contraction and no one can predict exactly when it may occur.

MILLENNIALS DON’T EXIST! 

Gen Xers and the Silent Generation get a lot less press than Millennials, but all three generations have one thing in common. According to comedian Adam Conover, “Generations in general don't exist. They're not real things that exist in nature. We made them up…Here's what really exists: People who are alive at the same time.”

He may have a point.

The only generation that has been recognized officially by the U.S. government is the Baby Boom generation. At least, that’s what a U.S. Census Bureau spokesperson told Philip Bump of The Atlantic. The Baby Boom generation was recognized because its members were part of a demographic event. Encyclopedia Britannica explained the baby boom as:

“…the U.S. increase in the birth rate between 1946 and 1964; also, the generation born in the U.S. during that period. The hardships and uncertainties of the Great Depression and World War II led many unmarried couples to delay marriage and many married couples to delay having children. The war’s end, followed by a sustained period of economic prosperity (the 1950s and early 1960s), was accompanied by a surge in population. The sheer size of the baby-boom generation (some 75 million) magnified its impact on society…”

So, where did other generations originate? 

Sarah Laskow of The Atlantic reported, until the 19th century, generations were thought of as biological relationships within families. For example, grandparents would be one generation, their children the next, and their grandchildren the next, and so on.

The idea of societal generations – people who live at the same time and experience the same things – came from European intellectuals in the 1800s and early 1900s who advised, “people do not react to their particular historical conundrums as a monolithic group.”

Every person is unique and individual.

Weekly Focus – Think About It 

“The power of youth is the common wealth for the entire world. The faces of young people are the faces of our past, our present, and our future. No segment in the society can match with the power, idealism, enthusiasm, and courage of the young people.”

--Kailash Satyarthi, Nobel Prize winner and activist