What Goes Up, Must Come Down 2/21/17

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The Markets

Up!

Four major U.S. benchmark stock indices closed at record highs for four consecutive days during Valentine's Day week, reported Financial Times (FT).

To date, positive corporate earnings and robust investor confidence have offset fiscal and political uncertainty and helped push U.S. stock markets higher, said sources cited by FT. With 82 percent of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index reporting, corporate earnings are up 4.6 percent for the fourth quarter of 2016, and the Investors Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey showed bullishness at a 12-year high last week, according to CNBC.com.

While bullish performance is welcome by stock investors, a Barron's article titled, 'Memo to Investors: What Goes Up Must Come Down,' listed the responses of traders at a firm whose chief market strategist asked:

"In order to stay long U.S. equities, you have to believe...what? Here are some answers: Trump's recent troubles are just the typical pains of any new administration. The Federal Reserve hikes rates twice, not three times, in 2017, and the yield on 10-year Treasuries stays at or below 3 percent. Oil prices remain stable. The Street, for once, is too pessimistic on earnings, but since analysts already forecast profit growth of 10.5 percent in 2017 and 11.7 percent in 2018, lower taxes must goose growth.
To this list, [the chief strategist] added the following: Trump doesn't introduce overtly protectionist policies. U.S. growth stays in the 2 percent to 3 percent range until Trump's economic agenda passes Congress. And no geopolitical event either increases global energy prices or dampens U.S. consumer confidence."

Stock markets may be highly valued, but the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, which was designed to determine highs and lows in the business cycle, indicates the U.S. economy is doing well. The index increased for three consecutive months (November through January). The Conference Board's director of business cycles and growth research, Ataman Ozyildirim, said, "The January gain was broad based among the leading indicators. If this trend continues, the U.S. economy may even accelerate in the near term."

Things You Didn't Know Your Cat Wanted

Cat wine didn't win the first Pet Care Innovation Prize - that went to a dishwasher-safe bowl that connects to the pet owner's phone and Wi-Fi - but the product has been in the news. Hostilities appear to have broken out between competing start-up companies that make faux wine for cats (and a few faux wines for discriminating dogs). The New York Times reported:

"But already the company that brought its products to market first...'the original cat winery' - is accusing its newer competitor...of being a copycat...Both have come up with clever names for their products: For $11.95, people can buy Fluffy an 8-ounce bottle of Catbernet or Pinot Meow...Or for $14.95, they can pour 12 ounces of Meow & Chandon...Since alcohol can harm cats, these products are essentially catnip water, which can make a cat loopy and an owner happy. But based on a wine tasting I conducted at a local cat cafe-slash-adoption center, the products are primarily catnip for the owners: The shelter cats did not like wines from either company - only two of them indulged - but the people visiting the tastings loved the concept."

The challenge for companies that want cats to enjoy their wines, according to data from National Geographic, is the active ingredient in catnip - the oil found on catnip's stems and leaves - functions as a pheromone. While humans have ingested catnip for years in teas that assist digestion or reduce tension, cats prefer to smell the stuff. That could make the bouquet of cat wine quite important. Next on the docket for the cat wine start-ups: products for the next generation - kittens.

If cat wine sounds over-the-top to you, ponder this: One of the cat wine start-ups sold half of a million dollars worth of pet wines last year.

Weekly Focus - Think About It 

"Stories matter. Many stories matter. Stories have been used to dispossess and to malign, but stories can also be used to empower and to humanize. Stories can break the dignity of a people, but stories can also repair that broken dignity. 

--Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, Nigerian novelist

The Road to Brexit 2/14/17

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Weekly Market Commentary

February 13, 2017

The Markets

What's the word 'phenomenal' worth? It all depends on who says it. 

Barron's shared Wilshire Associates' calculations which indicated the word was worth about $175 billion - the amount markets gained last Thursday - when President Trump used it to describe the tax plan his administration will deliver "ahead of schedule." Markets gained another $100 billion in value on Friday. Barron's reported:

"While tax reform is definitely coming, a final bill is still a long way off, and a 2017 effective date is looking less likely...Yet, as the action late last week suggests, the equity markets are more than willing to give the new administration the benefit of the doubt. Something's coming, even if we don't know what or when. And that seems good enough to bid stocks higher..."

The word 'phenomenal' is probably worth a bit less than Wilshire's estimate. United States stocks pushed higher on positive earnings growth, too. With 71 percent of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index reporting results for the fourth quarter of 2016, "...the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 5.0 percent. The fourth quarter will mark the first time the index has seen year-over-year growth in earnings for two consecutive quarters since Q4 2014 and Q1 2015."

Consumer confidence remained high, but wavered a bit in February, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Americans are happy with their current financial circumstances, but expectations for the future dropped sharply. Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, wrote:

"... a total of nearly six-in-ten consumers made a positive or negative mention of government policies. In the long history of the surveys, this total had never reached even half that amount...These differences are troublesome: the Democrat's Expectations Index is close to its historic low (indicating recession) and the Republican's Expectations Index is near its historic high (indicating expansion). While currently distorted by partisanship, the best bet is that the gap will narrow to match a more moderate pace of growth."

This week could be bumpy. On Valentine's Day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify about the state of the economy before the U.S. Senate.

On the Road to Brexit...

Last week, Members of Parliament (MPs) approved the Article 50 bill, green-lighting Britain's exit from the European Union (EU). If the House of Lords follows suit, which is far from certain, then the British government will follow the lead of the British people and invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. (Article 50 gives member states the right to withdraw from the EU.)

The Economist reported:

"But a different sort of Brexit bill is approaching and will be harder to manage. It could yet scupper the whole process. Leave campaigners promised voters that Brexit would save the taxpayer £350m ($440m) a week. That pledge was always tendentious. But officials in Brussels are drawing up a bill for departure that could mean Britain's contributions remain close to its membership dues for several years after it leaves. In a new report for the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, Alex Barker, a Financial Times correspondent, puts the figure at anything between €24.5bn ($26.1bn) and €72.8bn."

Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, indicated the matter of how much Britain owes must be settled before questions about Britain's future relationship (i.e., trade agreements) with the EU can be addressed, according to Bloomberg.

To date, Prime Minister Theresa May has been taking a hard line, which has roiled tempers throughout the EU. Bloomberg reported the Prime Minister's comments:

"...are elevating the likelihood that the United Kingdom leaves the bloc in 2019 without an exit deal, let alone the sweeping trade pact it seeks...The messages from the diplomats are that EU governments are preparing to enforce their line that the United Kingdom can't be better off outside the bloc than inside it and that they value safeguarding their own interests and regional stability above the need to maintain good relations with the United Kingdom."

The pending negotiations bring to mind the words of German Field Marshal Helmut Von Moltke, "No operation extends with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the main body of the enemy."

Weekly Focus - Think About It 

"What counts for most people in investing is not how much they know, but rather how realistically they define what they don't know."

--Warren Buffett, The Oracle of Omaha

Unsettled Markets 2/6/17

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Weekly Market Commentary

The Markets

U.S. stock markets were unsettled last week.

President Trump's executive order banning travel from seven predominantly Muslim countries to the United States for 90 days, in tandem with some disappointing earnings reports, inspired turmoil and uncertainty that helped push U.S. stock markets lower early in the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped below 20,000.

Mid-week, markets remained sanguine after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. An economist cited by Barron's said:

"[The Federal Reserve] left open the door to hike rates further should the trend in inflation accelerate while also maintaining the option to hold rates steady for an extended period. I expect the minutes to be released in a few weeks will show a more wide ranging debate than that indicated by the policy statement, but the clear lack of visibility on key trade, tax, spending, and regulatory initiatives argued for a well-scrubbed statement."

Late in the week, markets rallied when the Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered a reasonably strong jobs report. The Boston Globe wrote, "...employers added a healthy 227,000 workers to their payrolls in January. But, despite a surge of local minimum-wage increases in states across the country, wage growth was meager."

Financial shares gained on Friday. The Washington Post reported market optimism returned after The Wall Street Journal published an interview with Gary Cohn, White House Economic Council Director. Cohn indicated President Trump planned to sign executive orders preparing the way to dismantle Dodd-Frank reforms and limit other regulations affecting the financial industry.

The Dow finished the week just above 20,000.

Does College Open Doors?

A new study examined how college affects Americans' social mobility by cross-referencing data from the Department of Education (from 1999-2013) with 30 million tax returns. The researchers looked at the earnings of graduates from various colleges and how graduates' earnings varied relative to parental income. The Economist described some of the findings:

"...some colleges do a better job of boosting poor students up the income ladder than others. Previously, the best data available showed only average earnings by college. For the first time, the entire earnings distribution of a college's graduates - and how that relates to parental income - is now known.

These data show that graduates of elite universities with single-digit admissions rates and billion-dollar endowments are still the most likely to join the top 1 percent (though having wealthy parents improves the odds). And despite recent efforts to change, their student bodies are still overwhelmingly wealthy...

...legacy admissions, which give preferential treatment to family members of alumni, exacerbate the imbalance. Of Harvard's most recently admitted class, 27 percent of students had a relative who also attended. There's evidence that this system favors the already wealthy. MIT and the California Institute of Technology, two elite schools with no legacy preferences, have much fewer students who hail from the ranks of the super-rich."

The top colleges by mobility rate (students moving from the bottom to the top 20 percent) included: Cal State University-Los Angeles, Pace University-New York, SUNY-Stony Brook, Technical Career Institutes, University of Texas-Pan American, CUNY System, Glendale Community College, South Texas College, Cal State Polytechnic-Pomona, and University of Texas-El Paso.

The top colleges by upper-tail mobility rate (students moving from the bottom 20 percent to the top 1 percent) were: University of California-Berkeley, Columbia University, MIT, Stanford University, Swarthmore College, Johns Hopkins University, New York University, University of Pennsylvania, Cornell University, and University of Chicago.

Weekly Focus - Think About It 

"Oh give me a home where the buffalo roam,

Where the deer and the antelope play,

Where seldom is heard a discouraging word,

And the skies are not cloudy all day."

--Lyrics to Home on the Range

Rising Inflation Lingers 1/30/17

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Weekly Market Commentary

January 30, 2017

A historic moment for U.S. stock markets...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 20,000 last week. Barron's cautioned investors not to make too much of the milestone since, "There are only 30 stocks in the index so each one carries a lot of weight."

Regardless of the significance of the Dow's move, U.S. stock markets generally were upbeat about President Trump's first week in office. Financial Times reported 'animal spirits' - a term British economist John Maynard Keynes used to describe the emotions that drive consumer and investor confidence - returned as rapid executive action indicated the new President would follow through on campaign promises, including infrastructure spending.

"However, the Trump trade - reflecting hopes of tax cuts, higher infrastructure spending, and an easing in business regulation - that had dominated financial markets since November also underwent a subtle shift this week. While financial shares still shone, it was sectors that will benefit from infrastructure spending and cope with higher inflation that led the way. Up 3.4 percent, the materials sector was the best performer on the S&P 500 with miners also seeing gains."

Concerns about trade protectionism and rising inflation lingered.

U.S. stocks upward move was also supported by earnings growth. At the end of each quarter, companies report their earnings (which indicate how much profit they made during the period). FactSet reported 34 percent of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index have reported fourth quarter earnings, so far. Altogether, earnings are 2.7 percent above the estimates, although they remain below the five-year average.

Markets could be in for a bumpy ride next week as investors weigh in on President Trump's immigration ban. Bloomberg reported one large technology company, "...inserted language in a securities filing on Thursday on the issue, cautioning investors that immigration restrictions 'may inhibit our ability to adequately staff our research and development efforts.'"

Are your children smart shoppers?

Science Daily reported a meta-analysis of 73 studies nationwide evaluated parenting styles and children's buying habits. The findings suggest, "children raised by parents who set limits and explain the reason behind these limits are most likely to develop into wise consumers."

The study, which was conducted by the Society for Consumer Psychology, looked at the ways parents raise and communicate with their children. It defined four basic parenting styles:

* Authoritative parents generally tell children what to do and also explain why the children should do it. "These parents tend to relate quite effectively with their children and expect them to act maturely and follow family rules, while also allowing a certain degree of autonomy."

* Authoritarian parents are restrictive, too. They tell children what to do, but don't often explain why it should be done. These parents are "...not as likely to exhibit as much warmth in their communications."

* Neglecting parents don't offer much guidance or actively monitor children's activities. "They neither seek nor use parental power and control and, as a result, communication between Neglecting parents and their children is generally strained and minimized."

* Indulgent parents often "...give children adult rights without concomitant responsibilities while maintaining an open communication environment with children." These parents are described as "lenient, compliant, accepting, affirmative, and non-punitive."

The researchers concluded children whose parents take an authoritative approach to parenting tend to make better choices. The children choose to consume healthier foods (like fruits and vegetables), make better safety decisions (such as wearing a bike helmet), develop self-esteem, and offer viable opinions with regards to family consumption decisions.

Weekly Focus - Think About It

"Americans of all ages, all conditions, all minds constantly unite. Not only do they have commercial and industrial associations in which all take part, but they also have a thousand other kinds: religious, moral, grave, futile, very general and very particular, immense and very small; Americans use associations to give fêtes, to found seminaries, to build inns, to raise churches, to distribute books, to send missionaries to the antipodes; in this manner they create hospitals, prisons, schools. Finally, if it is a question of bringing to light a truth or developing a sentiment with the support of a great example, they associate." 

--Alexis de Tocqueville, Author of 'Democracy in America'

Around the World 1/17/17

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Weekly Market Commentary

Around the world in a few paragraphs...The post-election adrenaline rush may be over in the United States. Barron's reported:

"The new year began with high hopes, with the bulls expecting the rally that began with Donald J. Trump's election victory to continue into 2017, while the bears salivated at the opportunity presented by a market that had gotten way ahead of itself. Instead, the market has failed to break up or down...At his press conference last week, Trump covered a lot of ground...But he didn't cover the three subjects investors especially wanted to hear about - namely taxes, fiscal policy, and infrastructure. As a result, some of the primary beneficiaries of the Trump trade stalled: The S&P 500 Financials index declined 0.1 percent, while the energy sector dropped 1.9 percent."

Investors in the Asia Pacific region were less optimistic last week, too. Disappointing economic and international trade data from China unsettled markets, as did uncertainty about the global trade policies the new U.S. administration will pursue. National indices for Australia, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines finished the week lower.

In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 gained for the 14th consecutive day, closing at an all-time high for the 12th time in as many days, according to Trading Economics. Bloomberg reported European shares eked out a gain for the third straight week. Financials led the way after a large industry firm reported better-than-expected profits, inciting optimism about fourth quarter's earnings season.

Burgernomics: Here's A big mac index update.

The Economist invented the Big Mac index in 1986 as an entertaining way to assess whether currencies were at the "correct" levels. The index reflects the idea that countries' exchange rates should balance so the same product (in this case, a hamburger) costs the same in two different countries when the price is denominated in the same currency. After updating the index on January 11, 2017, The Economist reported the "all-meaty" dollar was stronger than usual: "The dollar is now trading at a 14-year high in trade-weighted terms. Emerging-world economies may struggle to pay off dollar-denominated debts. American firms may find themselves at a disadvantage against foreign competition. And, American tourists will get more burgers for their buck in Europe." A Big Mac in the United States cost about $5.06 last week. In the Euro area, the price was about $4.06 and in Britain $3.73. A Big Mac is cheapest in Russia ($2.15) and most expensive in Switzerland ($6.35). Here are the prices of a Big Mac (a.k.a. the Maharaja Mac in India) in a few other locales:

• Norway $5.67
• Sweden $5.26
• Brazil $5.12
• Japan $3.26
• China $2.83
• India $2.49
• Mexico $2.23 

It should be noted the Big Mac index is not a perfect measurement tool. The price of a burger should be less in countries with lower labor costs and more in countries with higher labor costs. When prices are adjusted for labor (using gross domestic product per person), the Brazilian real is the world's most overvalued currency, followed by Pakistan and Thailand. The most undervalued currencies include Egypt, Malaysia, and Hong Kong. Weekly Focus - Think About It "The charm of fishing is that it is the pursuit of what is elusive but attainable, a perpetual series of occasions of hope."--John Buchan, Former Governor General of Canada

And, They're Off!

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Weekly Market Commentary
January 9, 2017

The Markets

...And, They're Off!
Bullish sentiment helped world equity markets get off to a fast start last week. Just name a country or region - developed markets, emerging markets, the United States, Latin America, Asia, Europe, the United Kingdom - and it's likely the area's benchmark index may have been up for the week.

Not everyone was in the bullish camp, though. Barron's reported:

"The market optimism is understandable. After a long spell of zero interest rates, a baton transfer from monetary manipulation to fiscal stimulus and pro-growth chutzpah can be an exciting regime change...But investors' hopes could be misplaced. It would be one thing if there were shovel-ready infrastructure projects or proposed tax cuts on the table that could quickly boost spending. Instead, Republicans propose, for example, changing the basis for corporate tax from location of operations to location of sales. The aim is to encourage domestic production and exports, but the plan could hurt companies that import materials or goods. Will big importers like [big box stores] pass the tax hit onto consumers by raising prices?"

For contrarians, record highs for U.S. stock markets (both the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and NASDAQ closed at new highs last week) and strong bullish sentiment (Barron's reported, "The Investors Intelligence survey of newsletter writers showed the bullish herd swelling above 60 percent...") are red flags, signaling an inflection point may be near.

No matter which camp you fall into, there is a lot of uncertainty. Which policies will the new administration pursue? Will China's growth slow more quickly than expected? How quickly will the Federal Reserve raise rates? Will interest rates continue to move higher? Will a stronger dollar negatively affect emerging markets? In the face of so much uncertainty, it's important to be diversified.

Are You Thinking About Starting a Business?
Small businesses in the United States employed 56.8 million people or 48 percent of the private workforce in 2013 (the latest numbers available), according to the U.S. Small Business Administration. That's pretty remarkable when you realize that 34 percent of small businesses employ fewer than 100 people.

If you're thinking of starting a business, the AARP suggests you carefully consider legal and tax issues, including:

* Business structure. Will you be a sole proprietor? Or will you establish a corporation, limited liability company, or partnership? The structure of your business will affect taxes, liability, and other matters.

* Licensing. Many cities and states require a new business to register, apply for a business license, and pay an annual fee to do business.

* Tax payments. Talk with a tax professional to determine whether you need to make quarterly tax payments. Also, be aware that people who work for themselves pay both the employer and employee portions of Social Security and Medicare taxes. You'll want to factor that in when deciding pricing for products or services.

* Recordkeeping. In many cases, your business will need its own bank account and credit cards. You'll also need a system for tracking business receipts and expenditures. Investing in business accounting software can make recordkeeping a lot easier.

* Contracts. Contracts specify deadlines, terms of payment, and other particulars, ensuring everyone shares the same understanding and expectations. If your client asks you to sign a contract or asks you to provide a contract, consult with your attorney.

* Liability insurance. Professional liability insurance protects you if you're ever sued, and some clients may require you to have coverage. Talk with your financial or insurance professional to determine what type of coverage you may need.
Of course, when you work for yourself, it's critical to set money aside for retirement. Contact your financial and/or tax professional to discuss options that might work for you.

Weekly Focus - Think About It 
"We have neglected the truth that a good farmer is a craftsman of the highest order, a kind of artist."
--Wendell Berry, American novelist and poet

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What a Difference a Year Makes!

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January 3, 2017

What a Difference a Year Makes!

At the start of 2016, investors were rather pessimistic and risk averse, preferring bonds to stocks. By the end of the year, they were quite optimistic and preferred stocks to bonds. In between, markets traveled a bumpy road.

During January of last year, few investors imagined we would be where we are today. Markets started 2016 in a tailspin with investors worried about slower growth in China, U.S. economic strength, oil price declines, and the possibility of a global recession.

During the first 10 trading days of 2016, U.S. stock markets got off to their worst start for any year on record, reported Financial Times. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) Index lost about $1.4 trillion in value and every major sector in the index was in the red, except for utilities.

The sharp drop stunned investors, and many shifted assets from global stocks into bonds. In late January 2016, CNN Money reported:

"Investors yanked $2.9 billion from U.S. stocks last week, marking the seventh week of outflows out of the past eight, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Emerging markets, which have been in turmoil for months, experienced a 13th straight week of outflows of $1.2 billion. Money is fleeing to safe haven government bonds."**

Investor sentiment was near its all-time low. On January 14, 2016, just 17.9 percent of participants in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Investor Sentiment Survey said they were bullish. The all-time low is 12 percent and the long-term average for bullishness is 38.39 percent. Clearly, investors were not feeling optimistic about stock markets. 

A specialist cited by Time.com discussed market performance and investor sentiment in the context of the AAII Survey:

"Historically...the S&P 500 has advanced 7.7 percent in the six months after reaching this level of bearishness. By contrast, stocks have historically gained only 2.7 percent in the six months following the most bullish readings among individual investors."

As it turned out, the S&P 500 Index may have pushed the historic average higher during 2016. Barron's reported the Index finished the year up 9.5 percent and returned 12 percent when dividends were included.

Investors didn't enjoy a smooth ride last year, though. Late in June, the United Kingdom shocked the world when it voted to leave the European Union. Financial Times reported global markets lost $3 trillion during two days of brutal trading, including "...a nearly $1tn loss for the S&P 500, or the third worst two-day drop ever in value terms."

Markets recovered relatively quickly after the Brexit drop. However, it looked like another rout was in the works in November as the U.S. presidential election votes rolled in. The initial reaction of global markets to Donald Trump's election was panic; however, optimism soon prevailed and U.S. markets rallied on hopes the President-elect's yet-to-be defined policies would bolster growth and positively affect the global economy.

The expectation of stronger growth, along with an anticipated December rate hike by the Federal Reserve, pushed bond yields higher and investors moved assets out of bonds and into stocks. Barron's reported:

"The 30-year bond climbed 0.3 percentage point to 2.94 percent, resulting in a 6.3 percent decline in price. (Bond prices move inversely to yields.)...It wasn't just Treasuries. Municipal bonds, corporate bonds, and preferred securities all fell. Bloomberg estimates $1 trillion in the value of bonds evaporated last week after the election."

At the end of 2016, investor sentiment had risen well above the long-term average. More than 45.5 percent of participants in the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey were feeling bullish. Investors weren't the only ones feeling optimistic. The Investors Intelligence survey of investment advisors found the bulls (59.8) outnumbered the bears (19.6) quite significantly in late December. The Bull/Bear Ratio was at 3.05, according to Yardeni Research.

The ratio is considered by many to be a contrarian indicator. When the Bull/Bear Ratio is at 1.0 or lower, and when it is at 3.0 or higher, we may be near a turning point for stock markets, according to Investing Answers and The New York Times.

How Important is a College Degree?

At the University of Baltimore 2016 Midyear Commencement, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen shared her thoughts about the importance of college:

"Economists are not certain about many things. But we are quite certain that a college diploma or an advanced degree is a key to economic success. Those with a college degree are more likely to find a job, keep a job, have higher job satisfaction, and earn a higher salary. The advantage in earnings is large. College grads' annual earnings last year were, on average, 70 percent higher than those with only a high school diploma. Back in 1980, the difference was only 20 percent. The gap in earnings is significant only a few years after graduation - almost $18,000 a year, according to some recent data. Beyond these advantages, research also shows that a college or graduate degree typically leads to a happier, healthier, and longer life."

There appears to be significant benefits to attending college. However, Aon Hewitt recently suggested there also may be some drawbacks, especially for students who borrow to pay for their degrees. Aon's survey of 2,000 U.S. workers found 44 percent of Millennials, 26 percent of Gen X, and 13 percent of Baby Boomers are repaying student loans which, "...can have a long-term impact on workers' financial future."

The survey found just 71 percent of workers with student loans were participating in employer-provided retirement plans as compared to 77 percent of workers without student loans.

Weekly Focus - Think About It 

"In other words, I claim, if we really want to improve our judgment as individuals and as societies, what we need most is not more instruction in logic or rhetoric or probability or economics, even though those things are quite valuable...We need to learn how to feel intrigued instead of defensive when we encounter some information that contradicts our beliefs."

--Julia Galef, Co-founder of the Center for Applied Rationality